Market Overview – March 2021
January–March 2021 equity gains were supported by strong recovery indicators, mass vaccination, US fiscal support and central-bank policy.
Global economy and markets
- January–March 2021 equity gains were supported by strong recovery indicators, mass vaccination, US fiscal support and central-bank policy.
- The World Bank projects global growth of 5.6% in 2021-22, the fastest post-recession pace in 80 years.
- The US is expected to grow 6.8% and China 8.5%.
Indian economy
- GDP grew 1.6% in January–March 2021 but contracted 7.3% for the full fiscal year.
- This was the first full-year contraction in four decades, since 1979-80 (–5.2%).
- The RBI Monetary Policy Committee retained its 10.5% GDP growth projection for FY 2021-22.
Indian stock markets
- Markets remained resilient despite the COVID crisis, helped by a good Q4 earnings season and strong management commentary.
- Economic damage from the second wave appeared smaller than the 2020 national lockdown.
- Key risks: a third wave, tighter global financial conditions on inflation concerns, and rising US Treasury yields.
Corporate performance
- Q4 FY21 delivered double-digit top-line growth and a more than six-fold YoY jump in net profit.
- Sequentially, Q4 FY21 net sales rose 9.6% and net profit almost 30%.
- For FY21, net sales fell 1.5% versus FY20, while net profit grew 60.2%, largely on cost rationalisation.
Outlook
- The portfolio is tilted toward mid- and small-caps, over 75% of holdings excluding cash, which performed strongly.
- The BSE Small-Cap Index returned about 30% versus roughly 9% for the Sensex from January to May 2021.
- Top holdings performed well and are positioned in cyclical sectors such as commodities, metals, chemicals and power.
A telling statistic
- Of 1,419 NSE stocks above ₹5 as of June 2018, 64% were still below their 2018 highs.
- 48% remained at least 25% below their 2018 highs, and 28% at least 50% below.
- We view the bull market as young but possibly overheated, and recommend a stock-specific, valuation-centric approach.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
Fund Managers Speak
Market Overview – June 2026
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% this year, the lowest since the pandemic, as higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions and weaker trade weigh on activity.
Read the overview
Market Overview – March 2026
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps on Middle East conflict risks; the reference case is 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
Read the overview
Market Overview – December 2025
The IMF projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, versus an estimated 3.3% in 2025.
Read the overviewBegin your Care PMS journey.
Invest directly with a SEBI registered portfolio manager, as a resident or a non-resident investor. Contact us at connect@carepms.com and our team will guide you through every step.
- 01
Consultation
A conversation with our team about your objectives, investment horizon and risk appetite, and the approach best suited to them.
- 02
Documentation
A PMS bank account and demat account are opened in your name. You sign the PMS agreement and grant the Power of Attorney.
- 03
Portfolio activation
Invest fresh funds of ₹50 lakh or more, or introduce an existing portfolio. Statements and reporting follow every month.