Market Overview – March 2023
Hopes of a soft landing in early 2023 faded amid stubbornly high inflation and financial-sector turmoil, leaving the 2023 outlook uncertain.
Global economy and markets
- Hopes of a soft landing in early 2023 faded amid stubbornly high inflation and financial-sector turmoil, leaving the 2023 outlook uncertain.
- Global growth is forecast to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023; advanced economies from 2.7% to 1.3%.
- Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023, with a return to target unlikely before 2025.
Indian economy
- GDP grew 6.1% in January–March 2023 (4.4% in Q3 FY23); FY23 growth was 7.2%.
- FY24 growth may exceed the initial 6.5% estimate, barring monsoon and geopolitical risks.
- CPI inflation fell to an 18-month low of 4.7% in April 2023, from 5.66% in March.
Indian stock markets
- Markets were under pressure early in 2023 as FIIs grew cautious on emerging markets and US banking uncertainty weighed on sentiment.
- FIIs were net buyers of US$5 bn in May 2023, a third consecutive month and the highest since September 2022.
- The Nifty gained 2.4% FYTD and sits 1.9% below its all-time high.
- On expected FY24 EPS of ₹972, the Nifty trades at 19x one-year forward, below its 10-year average of about 20x.
Corporate performance (Q4 FY23)
- Revenue grew 13.4% YoY, the fourth consecutive quarter of slowing growth, from 33% in June 2022.
- Operating margins fell 110 bps YoY but rose 40 bps sequentially; net profit grew 6.5% versus an 11.5% decline in the December quarter.
- Banks led, with 31.9% revenue and 29.7% net-profit growth; IT, Pharma, Metals and Consumer Durables underperformed.
Outlook
- An improving growth outlook for India should attract FDI and FPI flows, alongside steady domestic participation.
- Care PMS, though more volatile, has significantly outperformed broader indices when markets turn positive.
- April 2023 returns: Care PMS 9.20% versus 4.60% for the BSE 500.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
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