Market Overview – September 2025
The IMF raised its 2025 world growth forecast to 3.2% (from 3.0%), attributing the momentum to temporary factors such as front-loaded trade and investment.
Global economy
- The IMF raised its 2025 world growth forecast to 3.2% (from 3.0%), attributing the momentum to temporary factors such as front-loaded trade and investment.
- The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% in October, a second consecutive cut, and will end quantitative tightening from 1 December 2025.
- Inflation remains elevated but stable; the Fed may delay or skip a further cut in December 2025.
Indian economy
- Q1 FY26 GDP growth surprised at 7.8% versus a 6.7% consensus, supported by an above-normal monsoon and post-GST-cut demand recovery.
- FY26 GDP is projected at 6.8% (up from 6.5%), with the RBI’s front-loaded 100 bps of rate cuts and ample liquidity strengthening transmission.
- The RBI held rates in October with a pro-growth tone, cutting its inflation forecast to 2.6% (from 3.1%) and leaving room for a 25 bps cut in December.
Indian stock markets
- Indian markets have been flat for three months despite global headwinds and ₹85,000 crore of FII selling.
- The Nifty trades at 20.6x 12-month forward P/E against a 20.7x long-period average; it is down 8% YoY versus +16%/+15% for MSCI EM/S&P 500.
- Of 1,225 BSE Small-Cap stocks, 425 (35%) are positive and 800 (65%) negative, with about 395 down more than 20%.
Corporate performance (Q2 FY26)
- Over 3,500 companies have reported, with aggregate revenue up 8.2% YoY.
- EBITDA rose 14.1% and PAT 16.0% YoY, a broad-based recovery.
- Growth was led by Telecom, Automotive, Banking & Finance, Metals, Healthcare, Energy, Cement and Capital Goods.
Outlook
- The earnings cycle appears to be bottoming, with growth accelerating into double digits as government measures and reforms continue.
- Resolution of the tariff stalemate is a key external catalyst.
- Care PMS is exiting select large-caps and reallocating to small- and mid-caps where valuations have become attractive.
Disclaimer. This overview reflects the views of the Care PMS investment team at the time of publication and is for information only. Investments in equities are subject to market risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please read the disclosure document carefully before investing.
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Market Overview – June 2026
Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% this year, the lowest since the pandemic, as higher energy prices, rising inflation, tighter monetary conditions and weaker trade weigh on activity.
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Market Overview – March 2026
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 20 bps on Middle East conflict risks; the reference case is 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
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Market Overview – December 2025
The IMF projects global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, versus an estimated 3.3% in 2025.
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